高架仓库应用超细干粉灭火系统可行性分析

高架仓库具有高度高、空间大、货物分层密集存放、灭火难度大等特点,而超细干粉灭火装置灭火剂释放后,达到灭火浓度的粉雾能够迅速弥漫保护空间,笼罩保护物。在对高架仓库常见灭火系统进行分析的基础上,提出了超细干粉灭火系统在立体货架上分层布置、分区启动的应用形式及方法,并通过模拟灭火试验,分析了超细干粉灭火系统应用于高架仓库的可行性。结果表明：超细干粉灭火系统可有效扑灭高架仓库初期火灾。     

Some aging properties of parallel and series systems with a random number of components

In this article, we study aging properties of parallel and series systems with a random number of components. We show that the decreasing likelihood ratio property is closed under the formation of random minima. We also show, by counterexamples, that other aging properties are not closed under the formation of random minima or maxima. Some mistakes in the literature are corrected. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 238–243, 2014     

Bivariate models from univariate life distributions: A characterization cum modeling approach

Bivariate life distribution models are of importance for studying interdependent components. We present a generic approach by introducing a new concept of characterized model in stead of a characterized distribution. It strikes a balance between characterization and modeling approaches to eliminate their individual limitations and incorporate their respective strengths. The proposed model, being a characterized one, admits many important properties irrespective of the choice of marginal distributions. The retention of univariate IFR, DFR, IFRA, DFRA, NBU, and NWU class properties in the bivariate setup has been ensured along with some results on series combinations and convolution. No other models, available in the literature, can ensure simultaneous retention of these fundamental and extremely important class properties. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

An adaptive forecasting algorithm and inventory policy for products with short life cycles

Products with short life cycles are becoming increasingly common in many industries, such as the personal computer (PC) and mobile phone industries. Traditional forecasting methods and inventory policies can be inappropriate for forecasting demand and managing inventory for a product with a short life cycle because they usually do not take into account the characteristics of the product life cycle. This can result in inaccurate forecasts, high inventory cost, and low service levels. Besides, many forecasting methods require a significant demand history, which is available only after the product has been sold for some time. In this paper, we present an adaptive forecasting algorithm with two characteristics. First, it uses structural knowledge on the product life cycle to model the demand. Second, it combines knowledge on the demand that is available prior to the launch of the product with actual demand data that become available after the introduction of the product to generate and update demand forecasts. Based on the forecasting algorithm, we develop an optimal inventory policy. Since the optimal inventory policy is computationally expensive, we propose three heuristics and show in a numerical study that one of the heuristics generates near‐optimal solutions. The evaluation of our approach is based on demand data from a leading PC manufacturer in the United States, where the forecasting algorithm has been implemented. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

Exact likelihood inference for the exponential distribution under generalized Type‐I and Type‐II hybrid censoring

Chen and Bhattacharyya [Exact confidence bounds for an exponential parameter under hybrid censoring, Commun Statist Theory Methods 17 (1988), 1857–1870] considered a hybrid censoring scheme and obtained the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mean of an exponential distribution along with an exact lower confidence bound. Childs et al. [Exact likelihood inference based on Type‐I and Type‐II hybrid censored samples from the exponential distribution, Ann Inst Statist Math 55 (2003), 319–330] recently derived an alternative simpler expression for the distribution of the MLE. These authors also proposed a new hybrid censoring scheme and derived similar results for the exponential model. In this paper, we propose two generalized hybrid censoring schemes which have some advantages over the hybrid censoring schemes already discussed in the literature. We then derive the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator as well as exact confidence intervals for the mean of the exponential distribution under these generalized hybrid censoring schemes. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

A general approach to the shape of failure rate and MRL functions

Failure rate and mean residual life are two important characteristics for studying reliability of products. In literature, some work studied the shape of failure rate function based on the knowledge of the associated probability density function; some other work investigated the shape of mean residual life function based on the shape of the associated failure rate function separately for continuous case and discrete case. In this article, a general approach is developed which can be applied to the aforementioned studies. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

Optimal pricing for a short life‐cycle product when customer price‐sensitivity varies over time

Technology products often experience a life‐cycle demand pattern that resembles a diffusion process, with weak demand in the beginning and the end of the life cycle and high demand intensity in between. The customer price‐sensitivity also changes over the life cycle of the product. We study the prespecified pricing decision for a product that exhibits such demand characteristics. In particular, we determine the optimal set of discrete prices and the times to switch from one price to another, when a limited number of price changes are allowed. Our study shows that the optimal prices and switching times show interesting patterns that depend on the product's demand pattern and the change in the customers' price sensitivity over the life cycle of the product. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

油库储油区燃烧爆炸事故树分析

针对油库储油区安全管理点多面广的特点,分析储油区燃烧爆炸事故的相关影响因素和条件,建立完善的事故树模型。通过定性分析理清燃烧爆炸事故与基本事件之间的逻辑关系,定量分析获得各项基本事件的结构重要度排序,找出储油区存在燃烧爆炸隐患的重点部位,制订科学合理的安全信息监控点设置策略,为油库安全管理手段向信息化迈进提供决策依据。     

基于全寿命周期的舰船喷水推进装置综合保障技术研究

针对舰船喷水推进装置的保障需求，介绍了喷水推进装置的基本组成、技术特点，引入环境特征，使用特征因素，研究喷水推进装置从交装到服役期满的全寿命服役周期的综合保障技术，提出针对喷水推进装置在不同状态、不同时期的保障策略，建立喷水推进装置保障能力体系。     

基于实射数据的舰炮弹药当量系数

弹药当量系数是准确评估身管寿命的关键参数。通过对某型小口径舰炮的研究,提出了一种基于实弹射击数据的当量系数计算方法。对实弹射击试验获取的身管内膛烧蚀磨损数据进行了分析处理,拟合得到了身管磨损速度曲线,并计算得到了3种射击条件下的当量系数。研究结果为评估该类型火炮身管寿命提供了重要的数据支撑。